Let’s Predict the First Cancellation of the 2014-2015 Season

October 24th, 2014 Update: ABC has cancelled Manhattan Love Story after four episodes, officially making it the first cancellation of the 2014-2015 season.

Tonight marks the official start of the 2014-2015 television season, meaning dozens of new shows will roll out over the next few weeks. That means it is time for my 6th annual “predict the first cancellation of the new season” post. In years past, the first cancellation has usually been pretty obvious, either due to critical drubbing or a killer time slot. However, sometimes the networks stick by and even renew very low-rated shows, so who knows. Quite a few shows will not premiere until October, by which time the first cancellation will probably already have been made.

For the record, here are the first cancellations from the past five seasons as well as the number of episodes aired before cancellation:

2009-2010The Beautiful Life: TBL (The CW, 2 episodes)
2010-2011Lonestar (FOX, 2 episodes)
2011-2012The Playboy Club (NBC, 3 episodes)
2012-2013Made in Jersey (CBS, 2 episodes)
2013-2014Lucky 7 (ABC, 2 episodes)

How many of those shows do you remember? The only one I actually watched was The Playboy Club.

There are a few shows this season, like Gotham (FOX), The Flash (The CW), and NCIS: New Orleans, are all but guaranteed a full season pick-up and renewal for next season. Red Band Society (FOX) has already premiered to very low ratings, so it could be pulled soon if the second episode drops. Selfie (ABC) seems to be the worst-reviewed new show, so it’s definitely in the running for an early cancellation but there are plenty of options.

Hit the comments with your predictions for the first cancellation of the new season.


19 Comments

  • DuMont says:

    This is the first season in a long time in which not all of the newly debuting series were previewed in a network broadcast or affiliate distributed ‘Fall Preview Special’. Only NBC and CBS previewed every upcoming series in their specials. ABC and FOX chose to focus on targeted series, while The CW did not produce a ‘Fall Preview Special’ for the first time in its history as a network.

    Here is a list of the nine new fall series that have been unpreviewed:
    ‘Jane the Virgin’ (CW)
    ‘Selfie’ (ABC)
    ‘Manhattan Love Story’ (ABC)
    ‘Forever’ (ABC)
    ‘Utopia’ (FOX)
    ‘Black-ish’ (ABC)
    ‘Red Band Society’ (FOX)
    ‘Gracepoint’ (FOX)
    ‘Cristela’ (ABC)

    That being said, my prediction for the first fall cancellation is ‘Forever’ on ABC which I think will be yanked after airing its first three episodes and replaced by encores of ‘How to Get Away with Murder’.

  • writerpatrick says:

    It’s getting harder to pick the cancellations each year. Networks like NBC aren’t cancelling shows they use to. Instead they seem to be ordering 13 episode seasons and running them out.

    It seems to me that it’s usually a sitcom that gets cancelled first. Typically it’s something I’ve never even heard of, but I stopped watching sitcoms years ago. They just aren’t funny anymore, especially when they think of themselves as amateur dramas.

    Under normal circumstances, my guess is that it would be The McCarthys because
    1) it’s on CBS which means it has to get big ratings to compete with shows on it’s own network. It also means that the network can afford to drop shows with average ratings.

    2) It’s about an Irish American family so dropping it won’t be an offense to anyone.

    However, it doesn’t premiere until October 30th. That give the network plenty of time to cancel something before it. It also leaves the network the possibility of cancelling the show before it has even aired.

    Because of the time difference, I suspect that Selfie will be the first one dropped. It premieres on the 30th, a whole month before The McCarthys.

    TV.com has a deadpool for the first cancellations of the season.

  • Bob says:

    I’m sure which will go first but here are some contenders:

    NBC
    The Mysteries of Laura (NBC re-airing the pilot 3x this week alone)
    Bad Judge – critics hate it

    ABC
    Manhattan Love Story – no buzz

    CBS
    The McCarthy’s – no buzz

    FOX
    Red Band Society – expensive dud
    Gracepoint – no buzz

    • writerpatrick says:

      The Mysteries of Laura premiered with over 10 million viewers, so it will probably hang around at least half a season.

      Manhattan Love Story is one of those shows that people only hear about after it gets cancelled. It’s on at 8:30pm Tuesday against NCIS so it’s not in a great situation.

      I think a lot of people will want to check out Red Band Society so it will do well initially, but the viewers are likely to drop off fast. And when people get into cold and flu season they don’t really want to be watching a show about sick people.

  • Michael Shonk says:

    The suicidal time slots this fall is Tuesday at 8-9 for ABC and Thursday at 9-10 for NBC. That makes sitcoms Selfie and Manhattan Love Story on ABC and Bad Judge and A to Z on NBC most likely to die first. If I were to choose one it would be NBC’s Bad Judge.

  • ERIC PLEASANT says:

    I question as to whether or not any of the new shows will be all that successful yet I believe that NCIS: NEW ORLEANS is not going to last that long-lighning does not strike three times-Neither will GOTHAM which does not seem all that interesting especially with the leading man playing Jim Gordon. And I am afraid that THE FLASH will being going by way of its 80s version.

    • writerpatrick says:

      NCIS:NOLA premiered to 17 million viewers. Even if it does not last more than a year it won’t be the first cancelled.

      Gotham will probably get at least 13 episodes just from fan curiosity.

      The Flash has a strong buzz and is expected to do well.

      Most of the time the show first cancelled is the one you don’t even realize existed.

  • Robert says:

    Red Band Society did not do any better last night than it did last week. It could be in the running for the first cancellation.

    I sort of think Selfie is guaranteed at least a few weeks on the air if only because of all the media attention that will probably push some people to watch the first few episodes.

  • Bob says:

    @writerpatrick – I think a show nobody really knows exist is “Forever” on ABC.

    • Ray says:

      Forever did relatively well. Meanwhile FOX’s Utopia is a huge ratings disaster–especially considering the $50M cost to buy the franchise–and has already had its Tuesday airings pulled from the schedule.

  • Robert says:

    FOX’s Mulaney definitely has to be a top contender for first cancellation of the season after its dismal debut performance last night: 2.34 million viewers and a 1.0/3 A18-49 rating (based on preliminary Nielsen numbers).

  • Adam says:

    I hope the first canceled is Jane the Virgin.
    What a stupid concept.
    If I had a daughter & a doctor “accidentally” impregnated her, said doctor would be in prison & would then be paying 95% of her/his future income for the rest of her/his life to my daughter.

  • Shirley Burton says:

    I’m surprised all the shows have made it past three episodes so far, but I believe the first show to bite the dust will be Bad Judge. I do NOT like the concept, and the lead character is supposed to be this sexed-up version of Judge Judy? Hasn’t Will Ferrell done enough damage in theaters after Bewitched and Land of the Lost and now wants to ruin our eyes with this TV garbage?

  • Tracy says:

    Marry Me – I watched 2/3rds of the first episode then shut it town, deleted it, and deleted the series settings on my PVR.

  • Deana says:

    I also find Bad Judge to be a horrible show. I am surprised it is still on. The only new show I like is Madam Secretary. I hope that one stays on the air.

  • Robert says:

    We finally have a winner/loser: ABC’s Manhattan Love Story, cancelled today after four episodes and abysmal ratings. Read more at Deadline Hollywood.

  • Bob says:

    “Mysteries of Laura” ended up surviving and “Forever” died.

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